Oct 5, 2020
How Democrats Must Win Georgia’s 16 Electoral Votes — and Two US Senate Seats
In 2020, the Donald Trump administration's horrifying, wanton mismanagement of a deadly global pandemic has led to over 209,500 American deaths (and counting) from COVID-19. More than 7,000 deaths in Georgia. Millions of lost jobs across the United States. 7,444,700 citizens infected and counted. Thousands of Georgia businesses permanently closed and 215,000 jobs have been lost.
With rising rage at the Trump administration’s incompetence and willful disregard for American lives, plus shifting demographic trends, Democrats have an opportunity for the kind of election success that hasn’t been seen across the country since 1980. I’m convinced that Georgia is a crucial part of that — and I’m going to show you how it can happen.
In 2020, Georgia is in play for the presidential election with Joe Biden leading Trump by 3% in the most recent polls.
The Key to Winning Georgia
The key to Georgia’s 16 electoral votes and the two US Senate races (Democrat Jon Ossoff leads David Perdue by 1 point and Reverend Raphael Warnock is up 8 in his jungle primary) is improving Democratic turnout and margins in Gwinnett and Cobb counties, two suburban Atlanta counties that have seen massive demographic changes over the last 10 years.
The 2nd and 3rd most populous counties in Georgia, Gwinnett (936,250 people) and Cobb (760,141) swung massively from 2012 to 2018 with Gwinnett moving to Democrats by 23.5 points and Cobb by 22. Statewide number are also encouraging for Democrats this year with voter registration surging ahead of the May 11th deadline for the 2020 primary with registrations among young people growing more quickly than other age groups. Today, nearly one-third of Georgia’s voters are under 35 years old; a group that skews heavily to the left.
Important Note: October 5th is the deadline to register to vote in Georgia for the 2020 general election — you can register online here.
With improving margins in key counties and Democratic voter enthusiasm high across the state — over 960,000 Georgia voters cast votes in the Democratic senate primary this year versus 310,000 in 2016 — Georgia is truly a swing state in 2020.
How will Georgia flip?
Georgia has been a solidly red state since 1972, barring when a southern Democrat was on the ticket — Georgians voted for native son Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992. Every other presidential election they’ve voted for the Republican candidate. However, in recent years, there have been underlying trends pointing to a swing towards Democrats. From 2008 to 2016, Georgia has moved an average of 2.3 points to the left each cycle.
In 2012, Barack Obama lost Georgia to Mitt Romney by 7.8%. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by about 5%. Yet in 2018, Stacey Abrams narrowly lost her race for governor by just .4%, less than 55,000 votes. This was in spite of massive voter suppression by her opponent, Brian Kemp — who simultaneously both ran for governor and served as Secretary of State, the chief elections officer of his own election.
With Georgia’s population growing, and rapidly becoming both more diverse and Democratic, Georgia has gained at least one electoral vote in each of the last three census reapportionments; only seven states have more electoral votes.
The Numbers: Gwinnett County
Gwinnett is a suburban county that saw a 7.2% increase in non-white residents from 2010 to 2018 according to the US Census Bureau, including a 36.7% growth in its Black population since 2010, from 187,058 Black residents to 255,622 in 2018. Gwinnett has also seen a 30.6% increase in Asian residents and a 22.3% increase in Latinx residents — Cobb county has experienced similar changes. High turnout in increasingly diverse counties such as Gwinnett and Cobb helps Democrats and is crucial to winning Georgia. #WinGwinnettCobb and run up their margins, and Democrats win the state.
Gwinnett is also the key to the crucial 7th Congressional district in Georgia where Carolyn Bourdeaux is facing noted racist and anti-semite, QAnon believer Rich McCormick. Bourdeaux narrowly lost to retiring GOP Rep. Rob Woodall in 2018 by just 433 votes.
Bourdeaux is running a great ground game and outraising McCormick — buoyed by increasing BIPOC turnout and improving support for Democrats from suburban, college-educated white voters, Gwinnett should swing heavily towards Democrats and help usher Bourdeaux into office. As the LA Times wrote in 2019, the GOP’s issues with suburban voters, particularly women, didn’t start with coronavirus, they go much deeper.
The GOP’s disastrous handling of the coronavirus pandemic has only worsened their challenges with college-educated white voters, Biden is winning nationally with seniors and in Michigan, there are extremely worrying signs for Trump and the GOP in MI08. With an average of four high-quality polls the Week of September 27th showing Jon Ossoff running ahead of Stacey Abrams with whites by 8.5% and Joe Biden outperforming Abrams by 13% with whites, Democrats are positioned to win the state.
If Cobb county — the suburban key to US Rep. Lucy McBath’s (D-GA06) district — can also see high Democratic turnout allowing Biden, Ossoff and Warnock to run up their margins in Gwinnett and Cobb, Dems can win both US Senate seats and Georgia’s 16 electoral votes. Voters don’t split their tickets much anymore — with COVID and Trump proving an anchor around the GOP if Democrats #WinGwinnettCobb with high margins they should win the state.
In doing so, Democrats can defend Rep. McBath’s seat against her challenger Karen Handel and pick up GA-07. Both seats are listed as lean Democratic in the gold-standard Cook Report and as I’ve shown with demographics, trends, and polling; Democrats have an opportunity to do even better.
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