How Trump Could Still Win (but probably won’t)

The final 2016 electoral map that led to President Trump’s election.

“We were plowing the fields and they weren’t out there,” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican political consultant in Pennsylvania. “The Democratic groups didn’t get back on the street until Labor Day. They were more skittish about it.”

“The tremendous voter registration gain by the Republicans is the secret weapon that will make the difference for the Republicans in 2020,” said Dee Stewart, a Republican political consultant in North Carolina.

What a potential Trump win could look like — even while losing Wisconsin and Michigan and picking up no new states.

“Those are Democratic-leaning voters,” Ms. Abrams said during an appearance last week with Jill Biden, Mr. Biden’s wife, in suburban Atlanta, where early-voting turnout is setting records.

Example of early voting data trends in Texas

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